The Race to Profitability

This video stuck with me:

It’s a bit long, but I think the core premise is essentially correct. The frontier AI labs are terrible partners for most companies because they have an insatiable need to drive revenue up right now. I don’t think they’ll be able to help themselves; they need to make many hundreds of billions in revenue to justify their valuations. I see them a bit like Galactus, compelled to eat worlds just to continue existing.

I do, however, think the video missed something.

I think the frontier labs are aiming further out. They’re focused on getting the self-improvement flywheel spinning right now, because they believe the first to do it will pull away from the pack and win.

I think they believe the real profitability comes from forming partnerships, or just making investments, in medical, energy, and materials science. They provide the expertise and access to premium, gated AI, and in return earn a significant fraction of the revenue from real, world-changing economic growth: new drugs, cleaner power, and so on.